INFRASTRUCTURE

China’s Brahmaputra Projects

India faces significant concerns due to China’s extensive dam construction on the Brahmaputra River, particularly with the newly planned Medog (Motuo) Hydropower Project.¹ This massive 60,000-MW facility, slated to be the world’s largest, is located near the “Great Bend” of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) before it enters Arunachal Pradesh.² While China asserts that most of its projects are “run-of-the-river” with minimal storage, their cumulative impact raises alarms in India.³

China’s Brahmaputra Projects and Their Potential Consequences for India

China has several operational and proposed dams on the Brahmaputra:

• Operational: Zangmu (510 MW), Jiacha (360 MW), Dagu (660 MW).⁴
• Under Construction: Jiexu (510 MW).
• Proposed/Likely to Begin: Bayu (800 MW), Lengda (320 MW), Zhongda (320 MW), Langzhen (340 MW), and now the colossal Medog project.

These upstream interventions pose several risks for India:

• Hydrological Impacts: Even run-of-the-river projects can alter natural flow patterns, potentially affecting India’s own hydropower generation in Assam and other downstream regions.
• Agricultural Concerns: Large dams can trap vital silt and sediments, which are crucial for the fertility of agricultural lands in the floodplains of Assam and West Bengal, potentially leading to reduced soil productivity.⁵
• Ecological Disruptions: Altered water flow and habitat changes threaten the delicate Himalayan ecosystem.⁶ Sudden releases of water from dams could trigger flash floods, increasing the vulnerability of already flood-prone areas like Assam. There’s also an elevated risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) due to dam-induced changes.⁷
• Seismic Vulnerability: The construction of massive dams and reservoirs in a seismically active region like the Himalayas heightens the risk of earthquake-induced dam failures or landslides, increasing disaster potential.⁸
• Geopolitical and Strategic Concerns: China has previously demonstrated a willingness to use water data as leverage during periods of tension, as seen during the 2017 Doklam standoff. The absence of a legally binding water-sharing treaty for the Brahmaputra between India and China grants Beijing significant strategic control over upstream water resources, impacting regional geopolitics and security.⁹

India’s Countermeasures and Future Strategy

India has initiated several projects and diplomatic efforts to mitigate the potential impacts:

• Hydropower Development:
  • Upper Siang Project: A multi-purpose dam designed to regulate water flow and generate clean hydroelectric power, aiming to balance upstream developments.¹⁰
  • Dibang Valley Project (10 GW): One of India’s largest hydropower initiatives, intended to counterbalance China’s infrastructure buildup.
• River-Linking Projects: Projects like the Manas–Sankosh–Teesta–Ganga Link and Jogighopa–Teesta–Farakka Link aim to divert surplus water from Brahmaputra tributaries to the Ganga basin.
• Data Sharing Mechanisms:
  • An Expert Level Mechanism established in 2006 facilitates hydrological data exchange, though its effectiveness is limited.¹¹
  • While an MoU on Brahmaputra data sharing lapsed in 2023, an Umbrella MoU signed in 2013 remains valid, though it lacks binding enforcement.¹²

For a sustainable way forward, India needs to:

• Enhance Scientific and Strategic Monitoring: Continuously assess changes in river flow, sedimentation levels, and seismic risks associated with upstream dams.
• Strengthen Hydro-Diplomacy: Vigorously advocate for a legally binding water-sharing treaty with China to ensure transparency and equitable resource utilization.¹³ Promote multilateral cooperation involving India, China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan for integrated management of the Brahmaputra basin.
• Improve Disaster Preparedness: Bolster early-warning systems for floods and dam-related emergencies. Develop flood-resilient infrastructure in Assam and other northeastern states to minimize risks.¹⁴
• Implement Ecological Safeguards: Prioritize the preservation of riverine biodiversity, wetlands, and forests to maintain ecological balance. Closely monitor environmental changes like desertification in Tibet, which could exacerbate water scarcity downstream.