Context:
Recent geopolitical developments, including strained U.S.–Europe relations, the Ukraine war, and expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, are reshaping debates around nuclear deterrence and global security architecture.
Key Highlights:
- Strains in NATO Alliance
- Growing trust deficit between the United States and Europe.
- Questions emerging about reliability of U.S. nuclear protection under NATO.
- Expiry of New START Treaty
- New START agreement between the U.S. and Russia is nearing expiry, raising concerns of renewed nuclear arms competition.
- Expansion of China’s Nuclear Arsenal
- China reportedly adding about 100 nuclear warheads annually since 2023.
- Total arsenal estimated at around 600 warheads.
- Lessons from Ukraine War
- Demonstrates that strong conventional defense capabilities can resist nuclear-armed adversaries.
- Emergence of Alternative Security Arrangements
- Coalition of the Willing, consisting mainly of European states, is providing security support to Ukraine.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- Nuclear Deterrence:
Strategy where the threat of nuclear retaliation prevents adversaries from launching attacks. - NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization):
- Established in 1949.
- Principle of collective defense (Article 5).
- New START Treaty
- Signed in 2010 between the U.S. and Russia.
- Limits deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Entered into force in 1970.
- Objectives: non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Relevant Mains Points:
- Changing Nature of Nuclear Deterrence
- Nuclear deterrence shaped global security since Cold War era.
- Modern threats now include cyber warfare, terrorism, and climate security risks.
- Challenges to Existing Nuclear Order
- Potential collapse of arms control agreements.
- Rapid modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers.
- Rising strategic competition among U.S., Russia, and China.
- Impact on Global Security
- Increased risk of arms race and strategic instability.
- Weakening of multilateral arms control frameworks.
- Possibility of new regional nuclear alliances.
- Lessons from Ukraine War
- Importance of strong conventional military capabilities.
- Nuclear weapons do not guarantee decisive military success.
- Way Forward
- Strengthen international arms control regimes.
- Promote confidence-building measures among nuclear powers.
- Revitalize global commitment toward nuclear disarmament.
- Enhance multilateral dialogue on emerging security threats.
UPSC Relevance:
- GS Paper II: International relations, global security architecture.
- GS Paper III: Nuclear security, strategic deterrence.