Context:
The New START Treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 5, 2026, removing legally binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals and raising concerns about a new phase of global nuclear rivalry and strategic instability.
Key Highlights:
- Treaty Expiration
- New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) expired on February 5, 2026.
- With its expiry, all formal limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals have ended.
- Key Provisions of the Treaty
- Limited each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads.
- Included verification mechanisms such as on-site inspections and data exchanges.
- Russia’s Suspension
- Russia suspended participation in February 2023, citing the U.S. goal of achieving Russia’s “strategic defeat” in Ukraine.
- End of Verification Mechanisms
- The treaty’s expiry has halted on-site inspections and transparency measures.
- Both countries may now rely on satellite surveillance and intelligence assessments, which are less reliable.
- Emerging Strategic Competition
- Development of new weapons systems such as:
- Sarmat Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)
- Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle
- Some systems such as the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone were not covered by the treaty.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- New START Treaty
- Signed in 2010, entered into force in 2011.
- Between United States and Russia.
- Limited strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
- Included verification through inspections and data exchanges.
- Strategic Nuclear Weapons
- Long-range nuclear weapons capable of intercontinental strikes.
- Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
- Doctrine where nuclear war would lead to total destruction of both sides, deterring first use.
- Strategic Stability
- A condition where no state has incentive to launch a nuclear first strike.
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime
- International system of treaties and institutions aimed at preventing spread of nuclear weapons.
Relevant Mains Points:
- Importance of Nuclear Arms Control
- Reduces risk of nuclear war and strategic miscalculation.
- Ensures transparency and predictability among nuclear powers.
- Prevents costly nuclear arms races.
- Implications of the Treaty’s Collapse
- Potential expansion of nuclear arsenals by major powers.
- Increased strategic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- Weakening of the global arms control architecture.
- Emerging Global Nuclear Dynamics
- Rise of China as a major nuclear power complicates bilateral arms control.
- Development of hypersonic weapons and new strategic systems.
- Increasing entanglement between nuclear and conventional strategic capabilities.
- Way Forward
- Restore transparency and confidence-building measures between the U.S. and Russia.
- Encourage multilateral arms control frameworks involving major nuclear powers.
- Strengthen global non-proliferation mechanisms and diplomatic dialogue.
UPSC Relevance:
- GS Paper II: Global governance and international relations.
- GS Paper III: Nuclear security and strategic stability.