Context:
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The UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025 estimates India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
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While this suggests India has entered an era of declining fertility, the editorial questions whether this figure truly reflects India’s demographic reality due to methodological limitations.
Key Highlights:
Fertility Decline and Statistical Interpretation
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TFR represents the average number of children a woman would bear over her reproductive life if current birth rates remain constant.
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India’s reported TFR of 1.9 indicates sub-replacement fertility, raising concerns about long-term population ageing and workforce implications.
Limitations in TFR Measurement
Synthetic Cohort Assumption
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TFR is calculated using age-specific fertility patterns of women in different age groups today.
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It assumes younger women will follow the same fertility behaviour as older cohorts, which may not hold true due to changing socio-economic preferences.
Tempo Effect (Postponement of Births)
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A major distortion arises from the tempo effect, where births are delayed rather than reduced.
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Postponement of childbirth artificially lowers TFR in the short term, giving an impression of sharper fertility decline than reality.
Urban–Rural Fertility Shifts
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In urban India, postponement is observed across almost all older age cohorts.
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In rural India, postponement is mainly confined to middle-age cohorts, indicating uneven fertility transition.
Exclusion of Certain Births
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TFR calculations exclude births to women below 15 years and above 49 years.
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This can lead to inaccuracies in regions where early marriage and adolescent fertility remain prevalent.
Socio-Economic Drivers of Postponement
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Rising female literacy, higher workforce participation, and career orientation contribute to delayed childbirth.
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This increases the tempo effect and complicates fertility measurement.
Economic Implications: Reality vs Alarmism
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Historically, sub-replacement fertility has not necessarily constrained economic growth in developed countries.
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India’s key demographic concern is less about low fertility and more about youth unemployment and jobless growth.
Relevant Prelims Points:
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Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman is expected to bear during ages 15–49, based on current fertility rates.
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Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): Number of live births per 1,000 women in a specific age group per year.
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Replacement Level Fertility: Around 2.1, the level needed to maintain stable population.
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Tempo Effect: Distortion caused by delayed timing of births, not actual reduction in completed family size.
Issue + Causes
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India’s reported fertility decline may be influenced by:
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Delayed marriage and childbirth
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Changing family preferences
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Methodological assumptions in fertility estimation
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Benefits
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Lower fertility can reduce pressure on resources and improve maternal health outcomes.
Challenges / Impact
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Misinterpretation may lead to premature policy shifts.
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Long-term risks include ageing population and shrinking workforce, though not immediate.
Relevant Mains Points:
Indian Society Dimension
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Fertility transition reflects:
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Urbanization
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Women’s empowerment
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Education and career priorities
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Changing family norms
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Economic Linkages
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Demographic dividend depends more on:
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Employment generation
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Skill development
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Health and education investments
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Youth unemployment is a more urgent challenge than fertility decline.
Policy Implications
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Need for better fertility indicators beyond TFR, capturing postponement and cohort completion.
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Focus should remain on reproductive health access and employment-led growth.
Way Forward
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Improve demographic measurement by incorporating cohort fertility trends.
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Strengthen women’s education, childcare support, and health systems.
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Prepare long-term strategies for ageing while maximizing current demographic dividend.
UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
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GS 1 (Indian Society): Demographic transition, fertility trends, women empowerment
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GS 3 (Economy): Demographic dividend, labour force dynamics
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Prelims: TFR, ASFR, tempo effect