Dragon–elephant relations see cautious cooperation in trade and cultural exchanges

Context:

  • China has proposed enhanced cooperation with India in trade, industry, and cultural exchanges as part of its broader development strategy under the 15th Five-Year Plan.

  • The proposal comes amid complex India–China relations marked by both economic interdependence and strategic competition.

  • Renewed people-to-people measures, such as pilgrimage resumption and visa facilitation, indicate cautious engagement alongside geopolitical realities.

Key Highlights:

China’s Development Roadmap: 15th Five-Year Plan

  • The 20th Central Committee of the CPC approved the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, setting China’s development priorities for the next five years.

  • Under the 14th Plan (2021–2025), China achieved:

    • Average annual growth of 5.5%

    • Economy projected to reach RMB 140 trillion (~$20 trillion)

    • Per capita GDP above $13,000 for two consecutive years

India–China Trade Expansion

  • Bilateral trade reached $138.46 billion in 2024.

  • Trade from January–October this year stood at $127.63 billion, showing 11% year-on-year growth.

  • China remains one of India’s most important trading partners despite political tensions.

Industrial Complementarities

  • China highlighted complementary strengths:

    • China: Manufacturing, electronics, AI

    • India: IT services, software, biopharma

  • Industrial collaboration is projected as mutually beneficial if strategic concerns are managed.

Cultural and People-to-People Measures

  • China resumed Indian pilgrimages to sacred sites in the Xizang Autonomous Region.

  • India reinstated tourist visas for Chinese citizens, reflecting limited cultural normalization.

Multilateral Cooperation Platforms

  • As members of BRICS, SCO, and G20, both countries are urged to coordinate on global challenges like:

    • Climate change

    • Food security

    • International economic governance

Significance / Concerns

  • The proposal reflects China’s attempt to stabilize economic ties with India amid global uncertainties.

  • However, cooperation remains constrained by:

    • Border disputes

    • Trust deficit

    • Trade imbalance and security concerns in sensitive sectors

Relevant Prelims Points:

  • China’s Five-Year Plans are central instruments of its state-led development model.

  • Bilateral trade India–China crossed $138 billion (2024).

  • India and China are members of BRICS, SCO, and G20.

  • People-to-people exchanges include pilgrimage access and visa facilitation.

Benefits + Challenges + Impact

  • Benefits: Trade growth, industrial synergy, regional economic stability.

  • Challenges: Strategic mistrust, border tensions, dependence on Chinese imports.

  • Impact: Engagement may continue selectively, balancing competition with cooperation.

Relevant Mains Points:

India–China Relations in a Multipolar Order

  • Economic engagement persists despite geopolitical rivalry, reflecting complex interdependence.

  • India must balance cooperation with safeguarding sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

Economic and Industrial Implications

  • Collaboration in technology and manufacturing can support India’s growth goals, but risks include:

    • Supply chain dependence

    • National security vulnerabilities

    • Persistent trade deficit

Multilateral and Global Governance Role

  • Coordination in BRICS and G20 can help shape Global South priorities.

  • Joint action is possible on climate and development issues despite bilateral disputes.

Way Forward

  • India should pursue calibrated engagement by:

    • Strengthening domestic manufacturing under Atmanirbhar Bharat

    • Reducing trade imbalances through diversification

    • Expanding cultural exchanges while maintaining security vigilance

    • Using multilateral platforms for constructive dialogue

UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):

  • GS 2 (International Relations): India–China engagement, multilateral diplomacy, border trust deficit

  • GS 3 (Economy): Trade interdependence, industrial collaboration, supply chain security

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