Context:
• Around 600 climate experts convened on December 1 in France to initiate work on the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
• The process begins amid U.S. political skepticism on climate science and growing global concern over breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold.
• The IPCC AR7 is expected to be released in 2028 or 2029, influencing future global climate action under the Paris Agreement.
Key Highlights:
IPCC AR7 Process and Timeline
• AR7 aims to address interdisciplinary climate challenges, integrating science, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation.
• High Ambition Coalition supports a 2028 release to align with the Global Stocktake cycle.
• Some emerging economies and fossil fuel producers prefer 2029, reflecting geopolitical and economic concerns.
Scientific and Political Dynamics
• The IPCC works by consensus, allowing every country a veto, complicating approval.
• Disagreements mirror COP30 tensions, especially over phasing out fossil fuels.
• Despite official U.S. skepticism, American scientists continue active participation, reinforcing scientific integrity.
Climate Urgency
• IPCC AR6 (2023) warned that the world is on track to breach 1.5°C by 2030.
• UN warnings highlight accelerating climate risks and narrowing mitigation windows.
Relevant Prelims Points:
• Issue: Delay and political resistance in global climate assessments.
• Causes: Climate denial, fossil fuel interests, North–South economic divides.
• Institutions Involved: IPCC, UNFCCC, Paris Agreement mechanisms.
• Key Processes:
– Global Stocktake: Periodic assessment of collective climate action.
– Consensus-based decision-making in IPCC.
• Benefits of AR7: Updated climate science, policy guidance, risk assessment.
• Challenges: Political vetoes, delayed timelines, unequal responsibilities.
• Impact: Influences NDCs, climate finance, mitigation strategies.
Relevant Mains Points:
• Facts & Provisions:
– IPCC established in 1988 by UNEP & WMO.
– Paris Agreement (2015) aims to limit warming to well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C.
• Conceptual Clarity:
– 1.5°C threshold reduces extreme climate impacts.
– Global Stocktake strengthens transparency and accountability.
• Issues Highlighted:
– Science–politics interface in climate governance.
– Equity concerns between developed and developing nations.
• Way Forward:
– Strengthen science-based decision-making.
– Insulate climate assessments from political interference.
– Enhance climate finance, technology transfer, and trust-building.
– Align IPCC timelines with global policy cycles for effective action.
UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
• GS 3: Climate Change, Environment & Ecology, Sustainable Development
• GS 2: International Relations, Global Governance, Multilateral Institutions