Context:
The New START nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 4, 2026, raising concerns about a renewed global nuclear arms race and proliferation risks.
Key Highlights:
- Treaty Expiration
- New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) imposed limits on deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
- Its expiration removes legally binding caps on nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers.
- Geopolitical Developments
- Russia suspended participation in 2023 amid the Ukraine conflict.
- The United States signaled resumption of nuclear testing in 2025, after more than three decades.
- Global Security Implications
- Absence of arms control agreements could increase nuclear stockpiles.
- Raises the risk of strategic competition and nuclear proliferation.
- Regional Proliferation Risks
- Potential nuclear ambitions in West Asia, including:
- Iran
- Saudi Arabia
- Turkey
- Egypt
Relevant Prelims Points:
- New START Treaty
- Signed in 2010 by the United States and Russia.
- Limited deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 each.
- Limited strategic delivery systems (ICBMs, SLBMs, bombers).
- Included verification mechanisms and inspections.
- Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty
- Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.
- Eliminated ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles (500–5,500 km range).
- Collapsed in 2019.
- Nuclear Proliferation
- Spread of nuclear weapons and technology to non-nuclear states.
- Security Dilemma
- When one state increases military capability for security, others respond similarly, creating escalating tensions.
Relevant Mains Points:
- Arms Control and Global Strategic Stability
- Arms control agreements reduce risks of miscalculation and nuclear escalation.
- Their collapse weakens predictability and transparency in nuclear policy.
- Security Dilemma and Arms Race
- Without treaty limits, both US and Russia may expand nuclear stockpiles.
- This could trigger global strategic competition and military modernization.
- Stability–Instability Paradox
- Nuclear deterrence may prevent full-scale war but encourage proxy conflicts and regional instability.
- Proliferation Risks in West Asia
- If Iran develops nuclear weapons, regional powers may follow.
- Could trigger a domino effect in nuclear acquisition.
- Impact on Global Governance
- Weakening of arms control institutions and international treaties.
- Undermines global non-proliferation regime.
- Way Forward
- Renew diplomatic engagement between US and Russia on arms control.
- Strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime.
- Promote multilateral arms control agreements involving emerging nuclear powers.
- Encourage confidence-building measures and transparency.
UPSC Relevance:
- GS Paper II – International Relations: Global nuclear governance and arms control treaties.
- GS Paper III – Internal Security: Nuclear deterrence, strategic stability, and proliferation risks.