Context:
- An editorial analysis based on global conflict data highlights a sharp surge in violence in 2025, with one in six people worldwide exposed to conflict.
- The findings are drawn from data compiled by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), reflecting changing patterns of state and non-state violence, especially against civilians.
Key Highlights:
Data & Scale of Conflict:
- 831 million people globally exposed to conflict in 2025 (≈ 1/6th of world population).
- Nearly 2 lakh violent events recorded worldwide in 2025 — almost double compared to four years ago.
- Violence against civilians crossed 56,000 incidents, the highest in the last five years.
Regional Trends:
- Europe saw the largest increase in violence, driven mainly by the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
- West Asia recorded a 48% decline in violent incidents compared to 2024 due to temporary ceasefires in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
Actors & Nature of Violence:
- Government forces involved in 74% of all violent events globally.
- State-led violence against civilians increased significantly:
- 35% in 2025, up from 20% in 2020.
- Israel and Russia together accounted for ~90% of cross-border civilian-targeted violence.
- Myanmar military responsible for nearly one-third of state violence against its own civilians.
Role of Non-State Armed Groups:
- Non-state groups caused ~60% of conflict-related fatalities.
- Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan alone responsible for 4,200+ civilian deaths.
- 469 non-state armed groups used drones in the past five years — 14% increase over last year.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- Issue: Escalating global conflicts with reduced restraint and increased civilian targeting.
- Causes:
- Prolonged interstate wars
- Weak ceasefire mechanisms
- Easy access to commercial drone technology
- Key Trends:
- Rising state accountability in civilian harm
- Weaponisation of dual-use technologies
- Benefits (limited):
- Greater global focus on civilian protection norms
- Challenges:
- Erosion of International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
- Accountability gaps for state actors
- Impact:
- Humanitarian crises
- Forced displacement
- Regional instability
Relevant Mains Points:
- Facts & Definitions:
- Conflict: Sustained armed violence between state or non-state actors.
- State Actor: Government forces, military, law enforcement.
- Non-State Armed Group: Armed entities operating outside formal state structures.
- Conceptual Linkages:
- Changing nature of warfare
- Civilianisation of conflict zones
- Technology-driven asymmetrical warfare
- Keywords:
- International Humanitarian Law
- Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Internal Security
- Hybrid Warfare
- Way Forward:
- Strengthen international accountability mechanisms.
- Regulate commercial drone exports and use.
- Enhance UN peacekeeping and mediation capacity.
- Promote conflict prevention and early-warning systems.
UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
- GS II – International Relations: Global conflicts, role of states, international norms
- GS III – Internal Security: Non-state actors, technology in warfare, civilian security
- Prelims: Conflict data, ACLED, contemporary security trends