India Pursues a Trade Bloc Model of “RCEP Without China”

Context:

  • With the conclusion of the India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations on December 22, India has effectively secured trade arrangements with 14 out of 15 RCEP member countries.

  • Although India opted out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in November 2019, it has gradually built an alternative framework through bilateral trade deals, excluding only China.

Key Highlights:

Agreement Insights / Trade Policy Approach

  • India’s exit from RCEP was driven by fears of Chinese goods flooding Indian markets under a tariff-free multilateral system.

  • Instead, India adopted a bilateral FTA strategy, ensuring access to Indo-Pacific markets while retaining control over tariff policy toward China.

Smart Risk Management

  • China’s strong manufacturing competitiveness was seen as a systemic threat to Indian domestic industry.

  • Staying out of RCEP reflected India’s focus on protecting vulnerable sectors such as:

    • Dairy industry

    • Small-scale manufacturing

    • Sensitive agricultural products

Rules of Origin and Trade Deflection Concerns

  • Under RCEP, Chinese products could potentially enter India indirectly through ASEAN nations with minimal processing.

  • Bilateral FTAs allow India to impose stricter Rules of Origin, preventing “trade deflection.”

India–China Trade Framework

  • India’s trade engagement with China currently operates under the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA).

  • APTA is not a full FTA; it provides tariff concessions only on a limited positive list of products, preserving India’s trade defenses.

Shift Toward Reciprocal Trade

  • India’s strategy aligns with the principle of Reciprocal Trade, where:

    • Market access is exchanged only for meaningful benefits to Indian exporters

    • Safeguards remain against non-market economies

Relevant Prelims Points:

  • RCEP: Mega trade bloc of 10 ASEAN nations + Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand.

  • India withdrew from RCEP in 2019 due to concerns of trade imbalance and Chinese import surge.

Issue + Causes

  • Risk of cheap Chinese imports harming domestic manufacturing.

  • Difficulty in protecting sensitive sectors in a multilateral tariff-free regime.

Government Initiatives / Strategy

  • Building bilateral FTAs with almost all RCEP members.

  • Ensuring stronger Rules of Origin provisions.

Benefits

  • Wider market access in Indo-Pacific.

  • Better control over sensitive sectors.

  • Reduced vulnerability to Chinese trade dominance.

Challenges

  • Negotiating multiple bilateral agreements is time-consuming.

  • Need to ensure Indian exporters gain real competitiveness.

Relevant Mains Points:

Conceptual Clarity

  • Rules of Origin: Criteria to ensure only genuinely produced goods receive tariff benefits.

  • APTA: Preferential pact with limited concessions, unlike full FTAs.

Strategic Significance

  • India’s approach strengthens its Indo-Pacific economic engagement without compromising domestic industry.

  • Reflects India’s evolving trade doctrine emphasizing:

    • Selective liberalization

    • Reciprocity

    • Strategic autonomy

Way Forward

  • Strengthen domestic manufacturing under Make in India.

  • Improve export competitiveness to maximize FTA benefits.

  • Maintain safeguards against unfair trade practices.

UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):

  • GS 2 (International Relations): India’s Indo-Pacific trade diplomacy, RCEP decision

  • GS 3 (Economy): FTAs, trade policy, Rules of Origin

  • Prelims: RCEP, APTA, reciprocal trade framework

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