Context:
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A recent report indicates that India’s carbon emissions are projected to rise by only 1.4% in 2025, a significant slowdown compared to the 4% increase in 2024.
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The moderation occurs even as global emissions continue to rise, highlighting both India’s relative progress and the urgency of sustained climate action.
Key Highlights:
India’s Emissions Profile
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Projected emission growth (2025): 1.4%
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Total annual emissions: ~3.2 billion tonnes of CO₂
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India remains the third-largest emitter globally, after:
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China (~12 billion tonnes)
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United States (~4.9 billion tonnes)
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Per capita emissions: 2.2 tonnes CO₂/year, among the lowest within the top 20 emitting economies.
Reasons for Slower Emission Growth
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Favourable monsoon conditions reduced electricity demand for cooling.
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Rapid expansion of renewable energy, lowering dependence on coal.
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Combined effect resulted in reduced coal consumption despite economic growth.
Global Emissions Context
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Global CO₂ emissions (2025): Expected to rise 1.1%, reaching ~38 billion tonnes.
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China’s emissions growth: Slows to 0.4%, indicating moderation among major emitters.
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Fuel-wise global trends:
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Coal: +0.8%
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Oil: +1%
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Natural Gas: +1.3%
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Carbon Budget & Climate Urgency
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Remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C: ~170 billion tonnes CO₂.
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At current emission levels, this budget could be exhausted in about four years.
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Deforestation emissions (2015–2024):
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~4 billion tonnes CO₂ annually
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Reforestation offsets only about half, leaving a substantial net impact.
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India’s Energy Transition Challenges
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Coal remains the dominant energy source, particularly for baseload power.
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Structural challenges include:
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Grid integration of renewables
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Energy storage capacity
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Decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industrial sectors
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International Climate Developments
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Global leaders are meeting in Belém, Brazil, to:
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Discuss transition away from fossil fuels
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Negotiate climate finance for adaptation and resilience
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Address loss and damage compensation
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UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
GS 3 – Environment & Ecology
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Trends in carbon emissions
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Climate mitigation pathways
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Carbon budget constraints
GS 3 – Economy
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Energy–growth–emissions linkage
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Role of renewables in macroeconomic stability
Prelims Focus:
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India’s rank among global emitters
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Per capita emission comparisons
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Significance of the 1.5°C carbon budget
Mains Enrichment:
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Analyse whether India’s slowing emissions growth reflects structural decarbonisation or temporary climatic factors.
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Discuss policy measures required to lock in low-emission growth while sustaining development.