Political Instability in Bangladesh

Context:

The resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her subsequent flight to India amidst widespread protests represents a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics. This development raises concerns about Bangladesh’s stability and its relationship with India.

Factors Leading to the PM’s Resignation:

• Nationwide Unrest: Student protests demanding changes to job quotas, exacerbated by governmental repression and violence from the Awami League’s student wing, ignited widespread unrest.
• Economic Issues: The dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn led to increased unemployment and inflation, undermining prior economic growth.
• Erosion of Democratic Integrity: Accusations of electoral fraud and violence have weakened the democratic process, fueling public dissatisfaction.
• Authoritarian Policies: The application of strict laws, including the Digital Security Act, to curb dissent has fostered a more authoritarian style of governance.
• Economic Inequality: Corruption, high-profile financial scandals, and growing economic disparities have further aggravated public discontent.

India-Bangladesh Relations Under Sheikh Hasina:

• Trade Expansion: Bilateral trade surged to $13 billion in FY 2023–24, with Bangladesh emerging as India’s largest trading partner in South Asia.
• Land Boundary Agreement (2015): The agreement resolved longstanding border disputes, marking a significant achievement in bilateral relations.
• Connectivity Projects: Successful cross-border rail links and port agreements, such as the Agartala-Akhaura rail link and access to Chattogram and Mongla ports, have been implemented.
• Defence and Medical Collaboration: Joint military exercises like “Exercise Sampriti” and an increase in medical tourism from Bangladesh to India have strengthened ties.
• Enhanced Security Cooperation: Hasina’s administration played a role in dismantling anti-India militant groups, improving regional security.
• Energy Partnerships: Bangladesh’s import of electricity from India and the operation of the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline have been key developments.

Bangladesh’s Strategic Importance for India:

• Geostrategic Significance: Bangladesh’s location provides crucial access to the Bay of Bengal and serves as a key trade route to Southeast Asia.
• Regional Stability: Stability in Bangladesh is essential for maintaining peace and security in South Asia.
• Economic Interdependence: The mutual benefits of Indian pharmaceutical exports and Bangladesh’s textile imports illustrate economic ties.
• Cultural Links: Shared heritage and cultural connections, highlighted by festivals like Durga Puja and various cultural exchanges, foster mutual respect.
• Regional Cooperation: Collaborative efforts in regional organizations such as BIMSTEC and SAARC are crucial for shared development.

Challenges for India:

• Political Uncertainty: A potentially less cooperative administration in Bangladesh could reignite anti-India militant groups and heighten border security tensions.
• Geopolitical Shifts: Instability in Bangladesh might provide China with opportunities to extend its influence, necessitating vigilance from India as Beijing could offer attractive deals to any new government, similar to its strategy in Sri Lanka.
• Economic Consequences:
  • Trade disruptions and payment delays could affect the profitability and stability of investments.
  • Instability may lead to the relocation of Indian-owned textile manufacturing units in Bangladesh, which make up about 25% of the sector.
  • Future prospects for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) could be uncertain.
• Infrastructure and Connectivity Risks:
  • India’s investment of USD 8 billion since 2016 in road, rail, and port projects, including the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port rail line, may be threatened by current unrest.
  • Disruptions in connectivity could impact trade and access to India’s Northeast region.

Way Forward:

• Building New Alliances:
  • Adopt a cautious “wait-and-watch” approach to evaluate developments and their potential impact on regional stability.
  • Engage with diverse political groups in Bangladesh to foster a more inclusive relationship.
  • Broaden engagement with Bangladeshi society to counteract negative perceptions of India and move beyond the 1971 liberation narrative.
• Strengthening Security Measures: Enhance border security to address potential spillover effects and maintain stability.
• Advancing Digital Connectivity: Develop a digital connectivity corridor to improve trade, technological exchange, and e-commerce.
• Strategic Geopolitical Maneuvering:
  • Collaborate with international partners, including the US, UK, and European nations, to mitigate risks of increased Chinese and Pakistani influence.
  • Work with Gulf partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to support Bangladesh’s economic stabilization and counter extremist influences, preserving regional stability.
• Support for Democratic Processes: Advocate for democratic reforms in Bangladesh while avoiding direct political interference.
• Address Critical Issues: Focus on resolving ongoing disputes, such as water sharing and the Rohingya refugee crisis, and manage cross-border challenges effectively.