Context:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a possible development of El Niño conditions after July, with clearer projections expected by April, which may influence the Indian Summer Monsoon.
Key Highlights:
IMD Forecast and Climate Trends
- ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue until July.
- Climate models show more than 50% probability of El Niño after June, increasing to around 70% during July–September.
- Below-normal rainfall predicted across most regions of India in February, accompanied by above-normal temperatures, except in parts of southern India.
El Niño–Monsoon Relationship
- El Niño events are typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
- The most recent global El Niño occurred during 2023–24, affecting rainfall patterns worldwide.
- Early indications for 2026 suggest a potential El Niño, raising concerns about deficient monsoon and possible drought conditions.
Accuracy of Forecasting
- Seasonal forecasts issued in April are generally more reliable than those released in February or March because they incorporate updated ocean–atmosphere observations.
Significance
- A sub-par monsoon could impact agriculture, food production, water resources, and rural livelihoods.
- It may also influence inflation, food security, and economic growth, given India’s dependence on monsoon rainfall.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- El Niño:
- A periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns, influencing rainfall and temperature globally.
- Often leads to weak monsoons in India, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rainfall in parts of South America.
- La Niña:
- The cooling phase of ENSO, characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- Usually associated with stronger monsoon rainfall in India.
- ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation):
- A climate pattern involving temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric pressure changes.
- Consists of three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-neutral.
- ENSO-neutral conditions:
- Occur when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions dominate, leading to relatively stable ocean–atmosphere interactions.
- Impact on India:
- Around 50–60% of El Niño years historically coincide with weaker monsoons.
Relevant Mains Points:
Impact of El Niño on India
- Agriculture:
- Reduced rainfall may affect Kharif crop production, especially rice, pulses, oilseeds, and sugarcane.
- Water Resources:
- Lower rainfall can reduce reservoir storage, groundwater recharge, and hydropower generation.
- Economy:
- Agricultural shocks can lead to food inflation, rural distress, and slower economic growth.
- Climate Variability:
- Intensifies heatwaves, drought conditions, and irregular rainfall patterns.
Climate Change Linkages
- Global warming may intensify ENSO variability, potentially increasing the frequency or intensity of extreme El Niño events.
- Rising ocean temperatures may alter traditional monsoon–ENSO relationships, making predictions more complex.
Way Forward
- Improve seasonal forecasting capabilities through enhanced climate modelling and ocean observation systems.
- Strengthen drought preparedness through better water management and crop planning.
- Promote climate-resilient agriculture, including drought-tolerant crop varieties and diversified cropping patterns.
- Enhance inter-agency coordination between IMD, agriculture ministries, and disaster management authorities.
UPSC Relevance:
- Prelims: ENSO, El Niño, La Niña, monsoon variability, IMD.
- Mains: GS I – Physical Geography (climate systems, monsoon dynamics); GS III – Environment and Climate Change impacts on agriculture and economy.