Context
Following the India–Pakistan standoff in May 2025, codenamed Operation Sindoor, the strategic focus has gradually shifted from airspace tensions to the maritime theatre. A series of naval deployments, deterrent statements, and capability demonstrations by both countries reflect an evolving maritime competition and recalibration of deterrence postures in the Arabian Sea.
Key Developments
- India’s Maritime Posture
- Defence Minister’s Warning:
On October 2, 2025, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan of a “resounding response that could alter its history and geography” if misadventures occurred in the Sir Creek area — a disputed maritime boundary zone.
Pakistan has reportedly been expanding its military infrastructure in the region since 2023. - Naval Doctrine Shift:
- Admiral Dinesh Tripathi, Chief of Naval Staff, stated in August that the Indian Navy would be the first to act in any future conflict, indicating a forward deterrent doctrine.
- Operation Sindoor was designed to test and demonstrate this naval readiness posture, hinting at a more assertive maritime role.
- Capability Inductions & Partnerships:
- Commissioning of INS Nistar, India’s first indigenously designed diving support vessel.
- First joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea, strengthening Indo-Pacific maritime cooperation.
- These moves are aligned with India’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, countering China’s naval presence in Karachi and Gwadar.
- Pakistan’s Naval Signalling
- Dispersal of Assets:
Post-Sindoor, Pakistan relocated vessels from Karachi to Gwadar to reduce vulnerability to Indian strikes. - New Platforms & Missiles:
- Commissioned the Hangor-class submarine PNS Mangro (Chinese-built).
- Tested the P282 ship-launched ballistic missile.
- Conducted live-fire drills and overlapping NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) zones near India — sometimes within 60 nautical miles of Indian waters.
- Strategic Intent:
Pakistan’s aim is to project naval survivability, complicate Indian operational planning, and reinforce its A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area-Denial) capabilities in the Arabian Sea.
Strategic Analysis
- Escalation Control at Sea
- Maritime domains are harder to de-escalate compared to air skirmishes.
- Even limited naval exchanges risk crossing the war threshold, as memories of 1971’s Operation Trident and Python still define Pakistan’s strategic anxiety.
- Both navies are testing deterrence without triggering open conflict — a delicate balance between visibility and restraint.
- Shifting Deterrence Equations
- India retains numerical and geographical advantages, but faces modernisation lag in parts of its fleet.
- Pakistan’s Chinese and Turkish-built vessels — with advanced radars, EW systems, and missile versatility — are narrowing the gap.
- India’s earlier dominance, symbolised by 1971’s decisive naval campaign, can no longer be taken for granted.
- External Dimension
- China’s presence in Karachi and Gwadar under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework adds a PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) dimension.
- Türkiye’s collaboration on Babur-class corvettes adds a third-party variable to Pakistan’s naval growth.
- These partnerships internationalize the Arabian Sea dynamics, complicating India’s traditional assumption of maritime superiority.
- Strategic Drift & Cognitive Gap
- Both militaries risk operating under outdated assumptions from earlier crises (Kargil 1999, Balakot 2019).
- With the introduction of hypersonic missiles, drones, and AI-based surveillance, escalation ladders are shifting faster than doctrinal adaptation.
- The maritime theatre is now the key testing ground for this evolving strategic psychology.