Total Fertility Rate in India Remains at 2.0; Bihar Highest, West Bengal Lowest

Context:

• As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Report, 2021 released by the Registrar General of India, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained stable at 2.0, same as in 2020.
• The data highlights inter-State demographic variations and signals India’s progression into a late stage of demographic transition.

Key Highlights:

Trends in Fertility Levels

• India’s TFR (2021): 2.0
• Highest TFR: Bihar – 3.0
• Lowest TFR: Delhi – 1.4, West Bengal – 1.4
• Replacement-level fertility: 2.1
  • India has now moved below replacement level, indicating population stabilisation in the long term.

Urban–Rural Fertility Divide

• Rural TFR: 2.2
• Urban TFR: 1.6
• Reflects differences in:
  • Education levels
  • Access to healthcare
  • Women’s workforce participation

Changing Age Structure

• Children (0–14 years):
  • Declined from 41.2% (1971) to 24.8% (2021)
• Working-age population (15–59 years):
  • Increased from 53.4% to 66.2%
• Elderly population (60+):
  • Rose from 5.3% to 9% (1971–2021)

Marriage and Fertility Linkages

• Mean age at effective marriage for women:
  • Increased from 19.3 years (1990) to 22.5 years (2021)
• Higher marriage age correlates with lower fertility rates.

Relevant Prelims Points:

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
  • Average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years.
• Sample Registration System (SRS):
  • Continuous demographic survey estimating fertility and mortality indicators in India.
• Elderly Concentration (60+):
  • Highest: Kerala (16.3%), Tamil Nadu (12.9%), Himachal Pradesh (12.3%)
  • Lowest: Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7%), Delhi (7.1%)
• Demographic Dividend:
  • Rising working-age population offers economic growth potential if adequately skilled and employed.

Relevant Mains Points:

• Demographic Transition in India:
  • India is entering the late demographic transition stage with:
    • Falling birth rates
    • Rising life expectancy
• Governance and Policy Implications (GS 2):
  • Increased burden on:
    • Healthcare systems
    • Pension and social security frameworks
  • Announcement of a high-level committee on population growth and demographic challenges in the 2024 Interim Budget (yet to be constituted).
• Economic Implications (GS 3):
  • Opportunity to harness the demographic dividend.
  • Risk of premature ageing if employment generation and skilling lag.
• Social Dimensions (GS 1):
  • Regional disparities in fertility reflect variations in:
    • Female education
    • Health access
    • Socio-cultural norms
• Way Forward:
  • Shift focus from population control to population management.
  • Invest in:
    • Elderly healthcare and care infrastructure
    • Skilling and job creation for youth
  • Develop age-sensitive labour, health, and social security policies for a balanced demographic future.