Context:
- As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Report, 2021 released by the Registrar General of India, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained stable at 2.0, same as in 2020.
- The data highlights inter-State demographic variations and signals India’s progression into a late stage of demographic transition.
Key Highlights:
Trends in Fertility Levels
- India’s TFR (2021): 2.0
- Highest TFR: Bihar – 3.0
- Lowest TFR: Delhi – 1.4, West Bengal – 1.4
- Replacement-level fertility: 2.1
- India has now moved below replacement level, indicating population stabilisation in the long term.
Urban–Rural Fertility Divide
- Rural TFR: 2.2
- Urban TFR: 1.6
- Reflects differences in:
- Education levels
- Access to healthcare
- Women’s workforce participation
Changing Age Structure
- Children (0–14 years):
- Declined from 41.2% (1971) to 24.8% (2021)
- Working-age population (15–59 years):
- Increased from 53.4% to 66.2%
- Elderly population (60+):
- Rose from 5.3% to 9% (1971–2021)
Marriage and Fertility Linkages
- Mean age at effective marriage for women:
- Increased from 19.3 years (1990) to 22.5 years (2021)
- Higher marriage age correlates with lower fertility rates.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
- Average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years.
- Sample Registration System (SRS):
- Continuous demographic survey estimating fertility and mortality indicators in India.
- Elderly Concentration (60+):
- Highest: Kerala (16.3%), Tamil Nadu (12.9%), Himachal Pradesh (12.3%)
- Lowest: Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7%), Delhi (7.1%)
- Demographic Dividend:
- Rising working-age population offers economic growth potential if adequately skilled and employed.
Relevant Mains Points:
- Demographic Transition in India:
- India is entering the late demographic transition stage with:
- Falling birth rates
- Rising life expectancy
- India is entering the late demographic transition stage with:
- Governance and Policy Implications (GS 2):
- Increased burden on:
- Healthcare systems
- Pension and social security frameworks
- Announcement of a high-level committee on population growth and demographic challenges in the 2024 Interim Budget (yet to be constituted).
- Increased burden on:
- Economic Implications (GS 3):
- Opportunity to harness the demographic dividend.
- Risk of premature ageing if employment generation and skilling lag.
- Social Dimensions (GS 1):
- Regional disparities in fertility reflect variations in:
- Female education
- Health access
- Socio-cultural norms
- Regional disparities in fertility reflect variations in:
- Way Forward:
- Shift focus from population control to population management.
- Invest in:
- Elderly healthcare and care infrastructure
- Skilling and job creation for youth
- Develop age-sensitive labour, health, and social security policies for a balanced demographic future.