Context:
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On October 30, 2025, Donald Trump announced the possibility of resuming U.S. nuclear weapons testing, breaking with decades of restraint.
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The statement has reignited fears of a new global nuclear arms race and serious erosion of the international nuclear non-proliferation architecture.
Key Highlights:
Triggering Event
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The proposed resumption of explosive nuclear testing by the United States challenges:
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The credibility of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
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Long-standing informal norms against nuclear testing
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Fragile State of Nuclear Arms Control
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New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START):
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Set to expire on February 4, 2026
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No successor framework currently in place
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Absence of binding limits risks unconstrained nuclear modernisation.
Expanding Nuclear Arsenals
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China:
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Rapidly expanding its nuclear stockpile
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Estimated to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030
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The U.S. is developing new nuclear weapons:
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B61-13 gravity bomb
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W76-2 low-yield warhead
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Russia is simultaneously modernising its strategic and tactical nuclear forces.
Threat to Non-Proliferation Regime
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Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty:
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Signed by 187 countries
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Yet to enter into force due to non-ratification by key states, including the U.S. and China
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Resumption of testing could:
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Render the CTBT obsolete
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Undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework
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Implications for India
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India, which has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998, may:
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Face strategic pressure to resume testing to validate advanced nuclear designs
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Could alter India’s:
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Deterrence posture
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Diplomatic positioning on disarmament
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Global Security Concerns
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The United Nations Secretary-General warned that:
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Nuclear brinkmanship increases risks of miscalculation and escalation
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Consequences could be catastrophic and irreversible
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Key Concepts Involved:
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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Seeks to prevent spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament.
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Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): Prohibits all nuclear weapon test explosions.
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New START: Bilateral treaty limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons.
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Nuclear Deterrence: Strategy of preventing aggression through the threat of retaliation.
UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
GS 2 – International Relations
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Arms control and global governance
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Ethics vs realism in nuclear diplomacy
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Role of treaties in maintaining global order
GS 3 – Internal Security
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Strategic stability and nuclear deterrence
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Risks of arms race and proliferation
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Implications for India’s nuclear doctrine
Prelims Focus:
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Key nuclear treaties: NPT, CTBT, New START
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Nuclear modernisation trends
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India’s voluntary testing moratorium
Mains Enrichment:
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Analyse how the erosion of nuclear arms control regimes can destabilise global security.
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Discuss whether nuclear deterrence without robust treaties can prevent escalation in a multipolar world.