Context:
• UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report assesses the gap between the global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions trajectory under current policies/pledges and the pathway needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (limiting global warming well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C).
• The 2025 edition, published in early November 2025 ahead of COP30, delivers a stark warning: the world is off-track for 1.5 °C and even 2 °C.
Key Highlights:
- Global Emissions & Temperature Projections
- Global GHG emissions reached ≈ 57.7 GtCO₂-equivalent (2024), up ~2.3% from 2023.
- Under current policies → Projected warming by 2100: ~2.8 °C.
- If current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were fully implemented → Warming could still be ~2.3-2.5 °C.
- Emissions Reduction Benchmarks for 2035
- To align with 2 °C pathway → global emissions must fall ~35% below 2019 levels by 2035.
- To align with 1.5 °C pathway → emissions reduction required ~55% below 2019 levels by 2035.
- Ambition Gap & NDC Status
- Many countries have either not updated NDCs by the 2025 cut-off or have only marginally improved them. Only 64 parties (63% of GHG emissions) had submitted new NDCs by 30 Sept 2025.
- New pledges are gradually improving but do not close the gap meaningfully.
- Major Emitters & Growth Patterns
- Six largest emitters: China, USA, India, EU, Russia, Indonesia. India recorded the highest absolute rise in emissions in 2024 (~3.6%). China’s growth was ~0.5%.
- Per-capita emissions: India and Indonesia are still below the global average (~6.4 tCO₂e).
- Political & Policy Implications
- The report underscores that urgent, deep systemic transformation is required across energy, land-use, transport, industry and finance.
- It emphasises that every 0.1 °C matters for extreme weather, ecosystems & vulnerable populations.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- UNEP EGR = annual science-policy assessment of the “emissions gap”.
- “Emissions gap” = difference between where we are heading under current policies/pledges and where we need to be to meet Paris goals.
- 1.5 °C and 2 °C refer to global average temperature rise above pre-industrial levels (≈1850-1900).
- NDCs = commitments made by countries under Paris Agreement, to be updated every 5 years.
Relevant Mains Points:
- The EGR 2025 is a wake-up call for global collective action: Not just new technologies but policy will, finance mobilization, and governance reforms.
- For India: Despite progress, India must update NDCs, strengthen implementation (renewables, energy efficiency, land-use change), and ensure peer-level transparency (reporting, carbon removal).
- Major structural transitions required:
– Decarbonisation of power and transport
– Behavioural change and consumption patterns
– Climate finance for developing countries (mitigation & adaptation) - Way Forward (for India and globally):
– Raise NDC ambition with 2035 milestone targets
– Use carbon budgets and sectoral plans (industry, transport, agriculture)
– Increase investment in low-carbon technologies and phase out fossil fuels
– Strengthen domestic institutions for MRV (Measurement, Reporting, Verification)
– Explore international cooperation (technology transfer, financial flows, carbon markets)
Possible Mains Question:
Analyse the key findings of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 and discuss the implications for India’s climate action strategy, especially in the context of updating its NDCs.
UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):
- GS2: International environmental agreements; climate diplomacy; UN institutions (UNEP).
- GS3: Climate change; mitigation strategies; India’s NDCs; sustainable development.