Why Is Myanmar Voting Amid Conflict?

Context:

• Myanmar’s military junta (Tatmadaw) is conducting elections amid an ongoing civil war–like situation following the February 2021 coup.

• The polls are widely viewed as an attempt to manufacture political legitimacy, marginalise opposition forces, and normalise military rule despite widespread violence and international criticism.

Key Highlights:

Election Timeline and Structure:

• First phase of elections: December 28, 2025

• Subsequent phases: January 11 and January 25, 2026

• Conducted despite large-scale insecurity and loss of territorial control by the military.

Political Landscape Post-Coup:

• National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi was dissolved; senior leaders detained.

• Union Election Commission (UEC) was reconstituted by the junta.

• Registered parties:

  • 6 national parties

  • 51 provincial parties

• Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) — military-backed — expected to dominate due to:

  • Deregistration of major opposition parties

  • Severe financial and logistical constraints on remaining parties

Electoral System and Military Control:

• Lower House: First-Past-the-Post (FPTP)

• Upper House & State Legislatures: Combination of FPTP + Proportional Representation (PR)

• 25% of legislative seats reserved for the military, ensuring veto power over constitutional changes.

Security Situation and Participation:

• Armed resistance by People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs).

• Tatmadaw has lost control over large territories.

• Elections cancelled in several constituencies due to security concerns.

• Low voter turnout expected as many youths have migrated abroad to escape forced conscription.

Legal and Technological Concerns:

• Election Protection Law (July 2025):

  • Used to arrest ~229 individuals

  • Criminalises criticism of the electoral process

• Use of electronic voting machines has raised concerns over transparency and manipulation.

International Reactions:

• Condemnation: UN, EU, Australia — terming elections neither free nor fair

• Supportive/Neutral: China and Russia sent election observers

• ASEAN: Continues to bar Myanmar’s military leaders from official meetings.

• US Policy Shift: Lifting of sanctions on some military-linked firms raised concerns about strategic interests (rare earth minerals) overriding democratic values.

Relevant Prelims Points:

• Issue: Elections conducted amid civil conflict and authoritarian rule.

• Causes:

  • Military’s need for domestic and international legitimacy

  • Collapse of civilian governance after the 2021 coup

• Government Actions:

  • Dissolution of NLD

  • Reconstitution of UEC

  • Legal repression via Election Protection Law

• Impact:

  • Democratic backsliding

  • Fragmented political system

  • Weak credibility of electoral outcomes

Relevant Mains Points:

• Facts & Provisions:

  • Tatmadaw: Myanmar’s armed forces with constitutionally entrenched power.

  • Electoral Systems: FPTP and PR combination may increase fragmentation.

• Conceptual Clarity:

  • Elections without political freedom undermine substantive democracy.

  • Reserved military seats negate civilian supremacy.

• Concerns:

  • Human rights violations

  • Marginalisation of ethnic minorities

  • Regional instability in Southeast Asia

• Way Forward:

  • Inclusive dialogue involving ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces

  • ASEAN-led mediation under Five-Point Consensus

  • Restoration of civilian rule through credible, internationally monitored elections

UPSC Relevance (GS-wise):

• GS 2: International Relations, Democratic Institutions, India’s Neighbourhood Policy