Context:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a high probability of El Niño developing after July 2026, which could significantly influence global weather patterns and India’s southwest monsoon.
Key Highlights:
- ENSO Transition
- The current La Niña phase is weakening, transitioning toward ENSO-neutral conditions.
- Climate models predict El Niño formation during the latter half of 2026.
- Possible Impact on the Indian Monsoon
- El Niño may coincide with the peak southwest monsoon period (June–September).
- Historically, El Niño events often lead to weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
- Climate and Temperature Effects
- Warmer sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño may lead to increased global land temperatures.
Relevant Prelims Points:
- El Niño
- Warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
- Characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- La Niña
- Cool phase of ENSO marked by below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- ENSO-Neutral
- Condition when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, and sea surface temperatures remain near normal.
- Southwest Monsoon in India
- Occurs from June to September.
- Provides over 70% of India’s annual rainfall (~880 mm).
- July and August contribute more than 50% of seasonal rainfall.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
- Specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for global meteorology, climate monitoring, and weather forecasting coordination.
Relevant Mains Points:
- Impact of El Niño on Indian Agriculture
- Reduced rainfall can lead to:
- Lower crop yields
- Water scarcity
- Stress on irrigation systems.
- Economic Implications
- Weak monsoon affects agricultural output, rural incomes, and food prices.
- May contribute to inflation and economic instability.
- Climate Change Linkages
- Climate change may intensify the frequency and variability of ENSO events.
- Increasing global temperatures can amplify extreme weather patterns.
- Need for Climate-Resilient Planning
- Strengthen early warning systems and weather forecasting models.
- Promote climate-resilient agriculture and drought-resistant crops.
- Improve water management and irrigation infrastructure.
- Way Forward
- Enhance monsoon monitoring and forecasting through institutions such as IMD.
- Implement adaptive agricultural policies and crop diversification.
- Strengthen disaster preparedness and water conservation strategies.
UPSC Relevance:
• GS Paper I – Physical Geography: Climate phenomena affecting global weather.
• GS Paper III – Environment & Ecology: Climate variability and its impact on agriculture and economy.