Addressing India’s Ageing Population

Context

Concerns over ageing populations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have fueled discussions on pro-natalist policies as potential solutions.

National and Regional Population Growth Trends

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): In 2021, India’s TFR fell to 1.9, below the replacement rate of 2.1, indicating slower population growth.
• Population Momentum: Despite the low TFR, India’s population will continue to grow until around 2070, due to a large number of women in reproductive age.
• Regional Differences: Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala show slower growth and higher life expectancy, while northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have higher fertility rates and slower rates of ageing.
• Elderly Population (2021): The national average of elderly people is around 10.1%, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu have significantly higher proportions at 16.5% and 13.7%, respectively.
• Projected Growth by 2036: Tamil Nadu’s elderly population is expected to reach 20.8%, Kerala’s 22.8%, and Bihar’s will grow from 7.7% to 11%.

Challenges Posed by an Ageing Population

• Workforce and Dependency Ratios: An increasing elderly population puts pressure on the workforce and raises dependency ratios. According to the Longitudinal Ageing Study of India (LASI), India’s elderly dependency ratio is rising rapidly, particularly in states with lower birth rates. LASI’s data on the health, economic, and social conditions of those aged 45 and above helps shape policies like the National Programme for Health Care of the Elderly (NPHCE) and emphasizes preventive care.
• Healthcare Demand: Ageing populations increase the demand for healthcare, especially for managing non-communicable diseases.
• Federal Representation: States with lower population growth may face disparities in federal representation if demographic performance isn’t taken into account.

Evaluating Pro-Natalist Policies

• International Models: Countries such as Hungary, Poland, and Sweden have implemented pro-natalist measures, including extended maternity leave and tax benefits for families with more children.
• Challenges in India: In India, the high cost of living, childcare expenses, and career impacts often discourage young couples from having larger families.
• Social Considerations: Financial incentives alone may not be sufficient; support is also needed to address the high costs of raising children and career impacts on women.

Recommended Approach for Population Policies

• Silver Economy: Investing in tech-based jobs tailored for older adults can help meet the needs of an ageing population. The Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment’s SACRED (Senior Able Citizens for Re-Employment in Dignity) portal is a step in this direction, facilitating employment for senior citizens.
• Comprehensive Elder Care: Initiatives like Kerala’s “Vayoraksha” project can help address the concerns and challenges faced by senior citizens, particularly during crises.
• Elder Care Workforce: Training caregivers to support the elderly will create jobs and meet the rising demand for social care.
• Strengthening NPHCE: Expanding the NPHCE to ensure accessible, affordable healthcare for the elderly can improve quality of life and address health challenges linked to ageing.