A Crisis in West Asia-North Africa (WANA)

Context: The ongoing conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in widespread destruction, significant displacement of populations, and a severe humanitarian crisis.

Background

• Enduring Legacy of Conflict: Since gaining independence in 1956, Sudan has experienced 15 military coups, endured two civil wars, and faced the Darfur conflict, which was exacerbated by the Janjaweed militia (the forerunner to the RSF). These conflicts have led to approximately 1.5 million deaths and massive population displacement.
• Collapse of al-Bashir’s Regime and Escalating Tensions: Following the fall of Omar al-Bashir, violence and unrest have continued, especially in regions like Darfur.
• Ethnic Tensions: Renewed violence against the Masalit community in Darfur has resurfaced old wounds and grievances from the ethnic cleansing of 2003.
• Displacement Crisis: Over 9 million people have been internally displaced within Sudan, and another 1.8 million have sought refuge in neighboring countries.
• Foreign Involvement: The conflict is further complicated by external actors, with countries like Egypt and Iran supporting the SAF, while the UAE and Russia back the RSF. Russia has also expressed interest in establishing a naval base in Port Sudan.

Key Challenges

• Humanitarian Emergency: The death toll from the conflict ranges from 15,000 to 150,000, underscoring the extreme violence and humanitarian needs.
• Food Scarcity: Severe food insecurity affects about 18 million people (37% of Sudan’s population), with critical shortages reported in areas such as the Zamzam camp, where many families face prolonged periods without food.
• Destruction of Infrastructure: More than 10,400 schools have been forced to close, depriving millions of children of education.
• Geopolitical Threats: The conflict risks spilling over into other fragile neighboring states, including Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya.
• Migration Surge: The ongoing war may lead to increased migration flows toward Europe, with countries like Germany and France already seeing a significant rise in Sudanese refugees.
• Disruption of the Suez Canal: The conflict has the potential to further disrupt operations of the Suez Canal, which has already been affected by attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen.

India’s Interests

• Economic and Trade Ties: India has substantial economic stakes in Sudan, with direct trade valued at $2,034 million and investments totaling $2.3 billion, particularly in the oil sector.
• Humanitarian Assistance: India has a record of providing humanitarian aid to Sudan, such as delivering 100 metric tons of food aid, including wheat flour and sugar, in 2020 to support flood and pandemic relief efforts.
• Security Concerns: Rising Islamic extremism in the region poses a potential threat to India’s security interests.
• Evacuation Efforts: India has undertaken significant efforts to evacuate its citizens from Sudan through Operation Kaveri.
• Support for Democratic Processes: India’s Election Commission played a role in supporting Sudan’s first general elections in the 1950s.