Context
With Donald Trump’s re-election, a new phase in US-India relations may emerge, marked by a reinforced “America First” agenda and implications for global diplomacy and trade.
Global Implications of Trump’s Second Term
- Domestic Priorities: Trump is expected to focus heavily on domestic issues like immigration, inflation, and trade protectionism. His “America First” policy may lead to a more isolationist US stance, with less emphasis on international alliances and diplomacy.
- Foreign Policy and Global Security
- Ukraine and Russia: Trump has promised swift action to resolve the Ukraine conflict, aiming to bring peace within 24 hours of assuming office, though the feasibility of this goal remains uncertain.
- China and the Indo-Pacific: Trump’s stance on China is likely to remain hardline. The Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) may gain strategic importance, as the US continues to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
- Relations with Allies: Trump’s skepticism toward NATO could weaken transatlantic relationships, potentially straining US credibility with allies and impacting global stability.
- Middle East & Israel: Trump may strengthen US-Israel ties, likely focusing on sanctions and covert actions against Iran rather than direct military confrontation, possibly intensifying tensions in Gaza and Lebanon.
- Trade Policies: Trade conflicts may resurface, particularly with China and the EU, risking supply chain stability and creating challenges for emerging economies like India.
- Climate and Energy Policy: Trump’s stance on climate change, including potential withdrawal from global agreements, may prioritize energy independence over environmental commitments, impacting global climate goals.
Impact on India
- Strategic Partnership: A strong US-India partnership in defense and security could deepen, especially in the Indo-Pacific, as both nations share concerns about China’s growing regional influence.
- Economic Opportunities:
- The alignment between Trump’s “America First” and India’s “Make in India” policies could create economic opportunities, particularly through revived trade negotiations and potential discussions on a Free Trade Agreement.
- Trump’s pro-business stance may support collaboration in technology, pharmaceuticals, and defense, though potential protectionist policies could challenge Indian exports.
- Energy Costs: Trump’s focus on fossil fuel production could lower global oil prices, reducing India’s import expenses, though it may hinder alignment on climate goals.
Potential Challenges
- Trade Tensions: Tariff hikes and protectionist policies could strain India’s exports, particularly in the IT, pharmaceuticals, and textile sectors.
- Immigration Policies: Harsher immigration laws, particularly around H-1B visas, could impact Indian professionals, especially in technology.
- Climate Cooperation: India’s aspirations for global climate leadership may face hurdles with Trump’s climate-skeptical approach, affecting efforts toward sustainable development.