GS1 – Geography
Context:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected above-normal rainfall during the second half of the 2025 monsoon season, following a surplus during June–July.
Definition:
- Above-Normal Rainfall: Rainfall that is ≥106% of the Long-Period Average (LPA).
- LPA (1971–2020): IMD’s 50-year average, currently 870 mm.
Factors Behind the Above-Normal Monsoon in 2025
| Factor | Explanation |
| Synoptic Systems & MJO | Six low-pressure systems and a favourable Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced monsoon activity. MJO is a tropical disturbance affecting rainfall patterns. |
| Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions | ENSO-neutral to La Niña-like conditions strengthened monsoon winds and moisture inflow. |
| Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) | IOD remained neutral, having no negative effect on monsoon strength. |
| Eurasian Snow Cover | Below-average snow cover over Eurasia led to a stronger land-sea temperature gradient, boosting monsoon circulation. |
Impacts of Above-Normal Rainfall
| Sector | Impact |
| Agriculture | Timely and sufficient Kharif sowing, especially for paddy and pulses. |
| Hydropower | Reservoirs replenished, improving hydroelectric output during high demand. |
| Groundwater | Enhanced aquifer recharge, supporting dry-season irrigation. |
| Economy | Promotes rural income growth, supports agri-GDP, and helps control food inflation. |
| Disaster Risk | Increased floods and landslides, particularly in Assam and hilly regions. |
Recent Monsoon Trends (2025)
- June–July Rainfall: 474.33 mm received – 6% above the average.
- Extreme Rain Events: 624 very heavy & 76 extreme rainfall events – lowest in 5 years.
- North-East India: Faced below-normal rainfall for 5 consecutive years.