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- India’s economic growth is expected to slow to 5.9% in 2023, from 6.9% in 2022, Goldman Sachs said in its India 2023 outlook report.
- “Growth will likely be a tale of two halves, with a slower first half as the reopening boost fades, and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand.
- In the second half, growth is likely to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, drag from net exports diminishes and investment cycle picks up,” Goldman Sachs said.
- Retail inflation is likely to dip to 6.1% in 2023 from 6.8% in 2022 as ‘active government intervention’ would cap food inflation, it added.
- “Core goods inflation has peaked but upside risks to services inflation are likely to keep core inflation sticky around 6%,” Goldman Sachs said. It said the Reserve Bank would likely raise the repo rate to 6.75% by February 2023.
- “We bake in a 25 bps repo rate cut in Q4 2023 if inflation pans out as per our forecasts to reach 5.3% y-o-y by Q4,” it further said.
- It noted that the current account deficit would stay wide given the export drag from a global slowdown, adding service exports would offer some cushion.
SOURCE: THE HINDU, THE ECONOMIC TIMES, PIB
