India’s Demographic Transition

GS 2 – Social Justice

Highlights

• India’s Crude Birth Rate (CBR) has dropped from 19.1 (2022) to 18.4 (2023) as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) data.
• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to 1.9 in 2023, after staying at 2.0 in 2021 and 2022.
• Bihar recorded the highest: CBR – 25.8 and TFR – 2.8.
• Tamil Nadu had the lowest CBR at 12, while Delhi reported the lowest TFR at 1.2.
• The elderly population (60+) increased by 0.7 percentage points, reaching 9.7% of India’s population.

Key Takeaways

• A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, ensuring population stability. Figures below this threshold indicate population decline and ageing trends.
• 18 States/UTs already report TFR below replacement level, especially in southern and western India.
• Northern States such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh continue to have above-replacement TFRs.
• Kerala has the largest elderly share at 15%, while Assam, Delhi, and Jharkhand reported the lowest elderly proportion.
• India must gear up for a rapid demographic transition, requiring robust financial, healthcare, and social support systems for the ageing population.

Observations from the Data

• Below-replacement fertility: 18 States/UTs report TFR < 2.1 (mostly southern & western India).
• Above-replacement fertility: Northern States (Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh) continue to have high TFR.
• Ageing population: Rising proportion of elderly (60+) signals a shift towards an ageing society.

Implications

1. a) Socio-Economic

• Shrinking working-age population in low-TFR states could slow economic growth.
• Rising elderly population increases demand for healthcare, pensions, and social support.
• Need for state-specific population policies:
  • Northern states: Focus on family planning and maternal-child health.
  • Southern/western states: Focus on elderly care and employment policies.

1. b) Labour Market

• Demographic dividend window could narrow if ageing accelerates without adequate skilled workforce development.
• Migration flows may rise from high-TFR northern states to low-TFR southern/western states.

1. c) Policy Challenges

• Strengthening healthcare infrastructure for ageing population.
• Expanding social security, pensions, and insurance schemes.
• Promoting gender-sensitive policies to maintain fertility balance.

Way Forward

• National level: Implement policies for ageing, employment, and skill development.
• State level: Tailor interventions to regional fertility trends.
• Health & social systems: Invest in preventive healthcare, long-term care, and financial security for elderly.
• Demographic dividend: Sustain by investing in education, skill development, and employment generation.

Key Concepts

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Number of live births per 1,000 people annually.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman is expected to bear in her lifetime.
• Replacement-Level Fertility: TFR of ~2.1 required to maintain population stability.
• Demographic Dividend: Economic advantage from a favourable age structure with a larger working-age population.