India’s Emerging Security Challenge: One-Front Reinforced War

GS2 – International Relations

Context

Lt. Gen. Rahul R. Singh has confirmed active Chinese backing of Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, indicating a shift from a two-front war to a “one-front reinforced war” paradigm.

Nature of the Threat:

• Not a conventional two-front war, but a Pakistan-led conflict with Chinese technological and diplomatic reinforcement—below the threshold of conventional escalation.

Key Features of Collusion:

• Military Assets:
  • Pakistan used Chinese J-10C fighters, PL-15 missiles, HQ-9 air defence.
• ISR Support:
  • Real-time coordination via Chinese ISR systems and BeiDou satellite navigation.
• Cyber and Drone Warfare:
  • Tactics influenced by Chinese cyber and UAV strategies.
• Information Warfare:
  • Chinese media amplified Pakistani narratives to sway global opinion.
• Diplomatic Shielding:
  • China avoided condemning terror attacks and backed Pakistan at UNSC.

Strategic Implications for India:

• Deterrence Challenge:
  • Blurs the line between grey-zone tactics and full-scale war.
• Doctrine Shift:
  • Rising importance of network-centric warfare, ISR, drones, and EW.
• Active Two-Front Reality:
  • Despite Eastern Ladakh disengagement, India now faces threats on both LoC and LAC.
• China’s Defence PR:
  • Showcasing weapons in conflict zones aids global arms sales.

Way Forward:

• Policy Realignment: Move from reactive posture to anticipatory deterrence.
• Integrated Strategy: Coordinate between MEA, MoD, DRDO, and SFC.
• Defence Manufacturing Push: Accelerate Make in India in UAVs, EW systems, satellite tech, anti-drone defence.
• Budgetary Support:
  • Increase defence spending (currently 13% of central budget, down from 17.1% in 2014–15).
  • Prioritize ISR, missile defence, cyber warfare.