Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Update Proposal

Background

India has called for a review and possible modification of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), reflecting evolving regional and environmental challenges.

Indus Waters Treaty: A Diplomatic Achievement

• Success in Transboundary Cooperation: The IWT is one of the few examples of successful transboundary water-sharing agreements despite decades of tension.
• India’s Cooperative Stance: Under the treaty, India allocated 80% of the Indus River’s water to Pakistan, demonstrating a collaborative approach as the upper riparian state.
• Stability During Conflict: The treaty has continued to function even through heightened conflicts, such as those in 2001, 2008, and incidents at Uri and Pulwama.

Reasons for India’s Demand for Treaty Modification

• Population Growth and Climate Pressures: Rising population and climate change have heightened the demand for sustainable water management, prompting India to seek updates to the treaty.
• Clean Energy Goals: India’s push for hydropower aligns with its climate and emissions targets, requiring greater flexibility in river management.
• Ongoing Cross-Border Tensions: Security challenges in Jammu & Kashmir affect India’s ability to fully utilize its river resources.
• Developmental Projects: India’s “run-of-the-river” projects, such as the Ratle hydropower project (HEP), face objections from Pakistan, highlighting treaty limitations in addressing current developmental requirements.

Article XII (3) of the treaty permits modifications by mutual agreement, and India’s recent notification indicates the need for a formal revision.

Disputes and Legal Proceedings

• Hydropower Project Disputes: Projects on the Kishanganga (Jhelum) and Ratle (Chenab) rivers have sparked contention.
• Pakistan’s Response: Pakistan has pursued arbitration through the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) after initially suggesting a Neutral Expert.
• India’s Position: India questioned the PCA’s jurisdiction, choosing not to participate in the proceedings.
• World Bank Intervention: The World Bank initially suspended both arbitration processes to encourage bilateral talks. However, both processes were reactivated in 2022 at Pakistan’s request, despite India’s objections.

Divergent Perspectives and Key Challenges

• Riparian Interests: India, as the upper riparian, focuses on optimizing resources for development, while Pakistan, as the lower riparian, stresses the need for uninterrupted downstream flow.
• Environmental Considerations: The treaty lacks provisions addressing modern climate-related issues, such as reduced glacial reserves, which impact river flows.

Pakistan’s Concerns

• Water Scarcity: Pakistan fears a potential decrease in downstream flow due to India’s projects.
• Flow Maintenance: Pakistan emphasizes the importance of maintaining uninterrupted downstream flow, citing the 2013 PCA ruling.
• Allegations of “Water Terrorism”: Pakistan has accused India of politically manipulating water resources, though India continues to comply with IWT terms.

Proposed Modifications and Suggestions

• Equitable and Reasonable Utilization (ERU): Incorporating ERU principles from the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention could address climate change and water scarcity.
• Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): Adding EIA protocols could ensure due diligence for HEPs, following the International Court of Justice’s 2010 precedent.
• Joint Projects: Article VII.1c of the treaty allows for collaborative engineering projects, which could facilitate joint management of river variability.
• Enhanced Cooperative Mechanisms: Establishing MoUs and cooperative frameworks within the treaty could strengthen dispute resolution and collaborative water management.

Significance of Revisiting the Treaty

• India’s request for modification reflects the region’s evolving needs and could better address both nations’ environmental, security, and developmental priorities.
• An updated treaty may promote sustainable resource-sharing, enhancing regional stability in South Asia.

Implications of a Unilateral Withdrawal by India

• Regional Instability: Withdrawing from the treaty could increase conflict risks in a nuclear-sensitive region.
• Impact on Neighboring States: A withdrawal could also affect China and Afghanistan.
• India’s International Reputation: Unilateral action might impact India’s standing on the global stage.

Moving Towards a Cooperative and Sustainable IWT

• Environmental Flow Standards: Integrate provisions in line with global norms, such as the Brisbane Declaration, to support river health and sustainable water use.
• Climate Adaptation Clauses: Add measures for adapting to climate variability, ensuring resilience to extreme weather and water flow changes.
• Aligning with Global Standards: Updating the treaty to incorporate standards from the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention would address contemporary water-sharing and environmental needs.
• Optimizing India’s Allocation: Facilitate India’s use of its allocated water for development in Punjab and Rajasthan.
• Leveraging Diplomacy: India could consider suspending PIC meetings to prompt serious treaty re-negotiations.