Korean Peninsula and India: Key Aspects

Context

Recently, North Korea announced that over 1.4 million people had volunteered to join the military, while it destroyed infrastructure along the border in response to South Korean drone operations and propaganda.

Current Issues in the Korean Peninsula:

• Destruction of Infrastructure: North Korea has destroyed roads and railways near the southern border as a reaction to alleged South Korean drones spreading anti-Pyongyang messages.
• Balloon Trash Retaliation: In response to South Korean activists sending leaflets, North Korea began releasing helium balloons filled with trash into South Korean territory.
• Escalating Hostilities: Tensions have worsened after North Korea amended its constitution, with Kim Jong Un labelling South Korea as a “hostile” entity.

Significance of the Korean Peninsula for India:

• Geopolitical Importance: The peninsula’s strategic location in East Asia places it at the intersection of key global powers such as China, Japan, Russia, and the US, impacting India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific ambitions.
• Countering Chinese Influence: The US-South Korea alliance offers opportunities for India to play a significant role in balancing China’s growing influence in the region.
• Bilateral Trade: With trade between India and South Korea reaching $27 billion in 2022-23, and significant investments from companies like Samsung, Hyundai, and LG, regional instability could affect India’s FDI prospects.
• Security Cooperation: Joint military exercises and maritime security initiatives support the broader Indo-Pacific security network. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions heighten India’s concerns over nuclear proliferation.
• Indo-Pacific Stability: Ensuring freedom of navigation and maintaining regional security are critical. Any rise in tensions could force India to engage diplomatically through platforms like the Quad.
• Diplomatic Engagement: India’s neutral stance and commitment to denuclearisation help in maintaining stability in the region.
• Cultural Diplomacy: The growing popularity of Korean culture in India strengthens soft power ties, enhancing diplomatic and people-to-people relations.

How the North-South Korea Conflict Affects India:

• Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chains, especially in electronics and automotive sectors, could be affected, threatening India’s energy security and causing fluctuations in oil prices.
• Trade Impact: Tensions may negatively impact India’s $27 billion trade with South Korea and agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating conflict in the region may destabilise Asia, complicating India’s security partnerships with the US and South Korea.
• Nuclear Proliferation Concerns: North Korea’s nuclear activities increase the risk of proliferation, potentially encouraging China and Pakistan to enhance their military capabilities.
• Strategic Concerns in East Asia: Instability in the region could impede India’s Act East Policy, affecting economic partnerships with East Asian countries.
• Humanitarian and Diplomatic Role: India might need to mediate between the two Koreas to promote dialogue and peace as part of its global peacebuilding efforts.

India’s Role and the Way Forward:

• Diplomatic Channels: Encouraging North and South Korea to engage in peaceful dialogue, similar to the 2018 inter-Korean summits that temporarily reduced tensions.
• International Cooperation: India can use its relationships with global powers like China, Russia, and the US to encourage peaceful negotiations, leveraging multilateral forums for collective engagement.
• Denuclearisation Efforts: Reviving talks on denuclearisation with a comprehensive approach involving regional stakeholders, as attempted during the 2019 Hanoi Summit.
• Strengthening Regional Security: India could promote a security framework like the ASEAN Regional Forum to facilitate dialogue on regional security and reduce the risk of conflicts.
• Humanitarian Support: Providing aid to North Korea, especially in times of crisis, as India has done before, could improve relations and support humanitarian efforts.
• Economic Cooperation: Reinforcing economic ties with South Korea, particularly through renewing the CEPA, would help mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical instability.