Normal rainfall measure may be lowered

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to revise downward by 2% the quantity of ‘normal’ monsoonal rain, two independent sources confirmed to The Hindu Currently, 89 cm of monsoon rain from June to September is considered ‘normal’, more technically, the long period average (LPA), and this is derived from the average rainfall that the country got from 1960-2010. Were this change to happen, the definition of ‘normal’ rainfall could dip below 88 cm, unprecedented since 1950. The dip in average rainfall is largely due to a surge in drought and depressed rainfall since 2000; 13 out of the last 18 years have seen ‘below normal’ rains (where rainfall is less than 95% of the normal) in India and there have been droughts (where rainfall was less than 90% of the normal) in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The IMD routinely updates ‘normal’ rain every 10-12 years but the changes can take nearly 5 years to reflect in the agency’s official forecasts. This time the change could be reflected by 2021 after taking into account the monsoon rainfall from 1970-2020, a senior meteorologist connected to IMD’s forecast process told The Hindu .

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