Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Proposal

GS II-International Relations

Context:

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire, conditional on Russia’s acceptance. The deal could lead to a resumption of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing.

Strategic Motivations:

Ukraine’s Objectives:

• Secure U.S. military aid & diplomatic leverage.
• Finalize mineral deals with the U.S. for economic stability.

U.S. Interests:

• De-escalation of the conflict to focus on global priorities.
• Geopolitical influence in Eastern Europe.
• Access to Ukraine’s rich mineral resources.

Russia’s Strategic Gains:

• Captured 12 settlements in the Kursk region.
• Ukraine’s drone attacks on Moscow aimed to pressure Russia into negotiations.

Challenges in Achieving Lasting Peace:

Mutual Distrust: Both sides doubt each other’s commitments.
U.S. Policy Shifts: Trump administration’s changing stance adds uncertainty.
Ongoing Military Operations: Russian offensives & Ukrainian counterattacks disrupt stability.
Unresolved Territorial Disputes: Crimea & Donbas remain key obstacles to peace.