GS2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Recent scientific analysis shows that El Niño events, traditionally associated with drought in India, are also responsible for triggering extreme rainfall episodes in central and southwestern regions of the country. This dual nature of El Niño complicates climate risk management.
Study Findings
- A long-term study using rainfall records from 1901–2020 indicates that El Niño years witness stronger heavy rainfall spells in certain regions.
- Even though total monsoon rainfall generally declines during El Niño years, short bursts of intense rainfall increase significantly.
- Central India and parts of the Western Ghats are particularly vulnerable to these extreme events.
Paradox of El Niño: Less Rain, More Floods
- El Niño reduces the overall frequency of rainfall days, especially light and moderate rains.
- However, it amplifies cloudburst-like downpours, often causing flash floods.
- This creates a “dry-wet” paradox—drought-like conditions followed by sudden devastating floods.
Socio-economic Implications
- Farmers face crop damage due to unpredictable rainfall distribution.
- Urban local bodies struggle with drainage and flooding, especially in rapidly expanding cities.
- Disaster management agencies face greater uncertainty in early warning and preparedness due to erratic rain behaviour.
Policy & Planning Relevance
Understanding El Niño’s complex rainfall impact is essential for:
- Improved monsoon forecasting and climate modeling
- Climate-resilient agriculture planning
- Flood-risk zoning for urban expansion
- Strengthened disaster preparedness and response systems
- Efficient reservoir and water resource management