Scarborough Shoal and China’s Plans in the South China Sea

GS 2 IR

Context

• The Philippines has strongly opposed China’s plan to establish a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, a disputed maritime area in the South China Sea.
• The shoal is a strategically vital location and a major point of geopolitical tension between China and other regional powers.

Geographical Details

• Scarborough Shoal:
  • A chain of reefs and rocks located 220 km off the coast of the Philippines.
  • Known in the Philippines as Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc.
  • Historically named after a British ship, Scarborough, that ran aground there in the 18th century.

• Strategic Position:
  • Sits in the middle of the South China Sea, along key international shipping lanes.
  • Around $3 trillion of annual global commerce passes through these sea routes.
  • Exclusive economic zone (EEZ) rich in:
    • Bountiful fish stocks,
    • Potential oil and gas reserves,
    • Safe anchorage for vessels during storms.

China’s Current Plan

• China aims to:
  1. Create a nature reserve covering 3,524 hectares around the shoal.
  2. Potentially develop military infrastructure, including:
     • Airstrips,
     • Radar systems,
     • Runways,
     • Missile systems.
• The concern is that this move will strengthen China’s control over the disputed territory and enhance its military presence in the South China Sea.

Who Claims It?

• Philippines and China both claim sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal.
• China’s position:
  • Seized control in 2012 after a standoff with the Philippines.
  • Uses coast guard and fishing fleets to maintain dominance.
  • Does not officially acknowledge Philippine sovereignty.
• Philippines’ position:
  • Considers Scarborough Shoal part of its EEZ under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
• Legal Ruling:
  • In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled in favor of the Philippines, stating that:
    • China’s claim to historic rights over Scarborough Shoal has no legal basis.
    • The shoal lies within the Philippine EEZ.
• China’s Reaction:
  • Rejected the ruling entirely and continued asserting control.

Risk of Conflict

• The region has become a flashpoint for potential military clashes due to:
  • Frequent encounters between Chinese and Philippine vessels.
  • Diplomatic tensions over fishing rights and territorial sovereignty.
  • The possibility of US involvement due to its defense treaty with the Philippines:
    • The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty obliges the US to assist the Philippines in case of an armed attack on its forces.
• Global Implications:
  • The South China Sea is a critical maritime trade route.
  • Escalation could disrupt global supply chains and increase regional instability.

Why It Matters for India

• India emphasizes freedom of navigation in international waters.
• Any conflict in the South China Sea could affect:
  • India’s trade routes,
  • Energy supplies from East Asia,
  • Regional security cooperation under initiatives like Quad (India, US, Japan, Australia).