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Next influenza outbreak ‘could kill up to 150 million people’
It was the disease to end all others, infecting a third of humanity, killing tens of millions in their beds and prompting panicked talk of the end of days across continents still reeling from war. One hundred years on from the influenza outbreak known as the Spanish Flu, scientists say the world is still ill-prepared for the next global killer. In particular, they warn that shifting demographics, antibiotic resistance and climate change could all complicate any future outbreak. “We now face new challenges including an ageing population, people living with underlying diseases including obesity and diabetes,” said Dr. Carolien van de Sandt of the University of Melbourne. Scientists predict that the next influenza pandemic — most likely to be a strain of bird flu that infects humans and spreads rapidly across the world via air travel — could kill up to 150 million people. Ms. Van de Sandt and her team examined reams of data on the Spanish Flu, which tore across the planet in 1918.In 1918, in a world struggling with the economic impact of global war, the virus was rendered deadlier due to high rates of malnutrition.
The team behind a new study, published in the Journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology , said the next outbreak will spread in the developed world among a population struggling with record obesity and diabetes rates.
“What we know from the 2009 pandemic is that people with certain diseases (such as obesity and diabetes) were significantly more likely to be hospitalised with, and die from, influenza,” Kirsty Short, from the school of Chemistry and Biosciences at the University of Queensland, said.
Source : https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-life/100-years-on-spanish-flu-holds-lessons-for-next-pandemic/article25162597.ece
