Context:
India’s diplomatic relations with China remain tense following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, while ties with the United States are strengthening amidst growing U.S.-China rivalry.
- Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the BRICS National Security Advisers’ meeting in St. Petersburg, signaling a possible easing of diplomatic tensions.
Factors Contributing to a Bipolar World:
- China’s Economic Ascent: With an economy valued at nearly $18 trillion in 2023, China is now the world’s second-largest economy, closely rivaling the U.S., which has a GDP of around $26 trillion.
- Military Modernization: China’s military has surpassed the U.S. with about 350 battle-force ships as of 2024, compared to the U.S.’s 293. Rising tensions in the South China Sea and over Taiwan add to the geopolitical friction.
- Democratic vs. Authoritarian Regimes: In 2023, only 20% of the global population resided in free countries, while 30% lived under authoritarian regimes, highlighting a divide in governance models.
- Global Power Shifts: U.S. global dominance has waned, with its share of global GDP falling from 40% in 1990 to 24% in 2024, allowing China to challenge its supremacy.
- Technological Race: China is aiming to lead in AI by 2030, with the sector potentially worth $1 trillion. By 2024, it controlled roughly 70% of the global 5G market.
- U.S. Containment Strategy: The U.S. has implemented containment strategies through alliances like the Quad, investing $9 billion in its 2024 military budget to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s Position in a Bipolar World:
- Non-Alignment and Strategic Autonomy: India remains committed to non-alignment, engaging with both the U.S. and China.
- Balancing Power Relations: India strengthens its ties with the U.S. through partnerships like the Quad, while continuing substantial trade with China, amounting to over $117 billion, despite border disputes.
- Promoting Indo-Pacific Stability: India promotes regional stability through the Act East Policy and strong relations with Southeast Asia, exemplified by the 2023 India-ASEAN summit.
- Economic Diversification: The “Make in India” initiative is aimed at reducing dependence on imports and bolstering domestic manufacturing.
- Military Cooperation: India collaborates with the U.S. through the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI). In 2024, its defense budget is approximately $73 billion, with a focus on modernization.
- Technological Growth: India is investing in AI, IT, and space technologies, with the space sector expected to grow to $13 billion by 2025.
- Advocacy for a Multipolar World: India continues to push for reforms in global governance, including a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and its 2023 G20 presidency demonstrated its global influence.
- Diplomatic Channels: India addresses tensions with China through dialogue, as evidenced by talks in 2023 to de-escalate border issues, while actively participating in forums such as BRICS and the SCO.
Challenges for India in a Bipolar World:
- Sovereignty and Security: India faces challenges in protecting its sovereignty amid growing U.S.-China tensions and China’s aggressive foreign policy, notably after the 2020 Galwan clash.
- Strategic Autonomy: India strives to maintain independent strategies, avoiding entanglement in major power struggles, drawing on its experience in the Non-Aligned Movement.
- Economic Dependence: Balancing relations with both the U.S. and China could lead to economic dependence. In 2022, trade with China reached $117 billion, underscoring the need for diversification.
- Regional Instability: U.S.-China tensions could destabilize the Indo-Pacific, affecting India’s security, as seen in naval encounters in 2022.
- Military Upgradation: India must modernize its military in response to China’s naval dominance, requiring increased defense investments.
- Technological Competition: India needs to enhance its technological sector to compete, as China’s control of 70% of the global 5G market in 2024 demonstrates its advantage.
- Global Governance: India must assert its influence in global governance institutions, amid the U.S.-China rivalry, as demonstrated by its G20 presidency in 2023.
- Geopolitical Alliances: India must carefully manage alliances, balancing its relationship with the Quad while maintaining dialogue with China.
Way Forward for India:
- Strengthening Regional Partnerships: India should continue expanding its ties with Southeast Asia, as seen in the 2023 India-ASEAN summit, countering China’s influence in ASEAN.
- Diversifying Economic Relations: India needs to reduce its reliance on China by enhancing domestic manufacturing under the “Make in India” initiative, aiming for a $500 billion manufacturing output by 2025.
- Military Modernization: Increasing the defense budget of $73 billion will be crucial to modernizing India’s military capabilities, including acquisitions like Rafale jets, to counter China’s naval advantage.
- Technological Development: Investments in AI and space technologies, projected to grow to $13 billion by 2025, are essential for maintaining global competitiveness.
- Advocating Global Reforms: India should continue pushing for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, leveraging its influence from its 2023 G20 presidency.
- Enhancing Diplomatic Engagement: India should persist in constructive dialogue with China to ease border tensions, as demonstrated in the 2023 Ladakh talks, while maintaining a strong presence in multilateral forums.
- Promoting Soft Power: Initiatives like the International Day of Yoga, celebrated in over 180 countries, should be leveraged to strengthen India’s global image and influence.