Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

GS 3 – ENVIRONMENT

Background

India experienced its hottest February in 124 years in 2025, with severe heatwaves in March posing a significant threat to wheat production, crop quality, and food security.

Wheat in India: Key Insights

• Significance: Wheat is the second most essential staple food in India, widely consumed in the northern and northwestern regions.
• Nutritional Benefits: It is a good source of calcium, iron, thiamine, and riboflavin.
• Cultivation Cycle: As a Rabi crop, wheat is sown between October and December and harvested from February to April.
• Leading Producing States: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh are the major contributors to wheat production.
• Ideal Growth Conditions: Requires a cool climate, moderate rainfall (75-100 cm), and well-drained alluvial or clay loam soils.
• Climatic Influence: Western Disturbances support production, but frost during flowering can severely damage the crop.
• Cultivation Area: India is the second-largest wheat producer after China, with nearly 9% of its land under wheat farming.
• Yield Performance: The country’s average wheat yield is 3.0 tonnes per hectare, lower than that of France and the United States.
• Procurement Goals: The target for wheat procurement in 2025-26 is set at 30 million tonnes.
• Export Restrictions: Wheat exports have been banned since May 2022 due to global supply concerns.

Climate Change and Its Effects on Wheat Production

1. Delayed Sowing Patterns: A warming Indian Ocean affects the Kharif season, pushing back Rabi crop sowing and increasing early heat stress on wheat.
2. Declining Yields: Higher temperatures speed up the ripening process, reducing the grain-filling period and lowering overall wheat output.
3. Declining Grain Quality: Excessive heat reduces starch accumulation, leading to harder grains, poor milling properties, and lower market value.
4. Excessive Resource Utilization: To counter climate-related stress, farmers rely heavily on fertilizers, pesticides, and fungicides, causing soil degradation.
5. Economic Challenges: Wheat procurement for 2024-25 fell significantly short of the 34.15 million tonnes target, affecting farmers’ incomes.
6. Food Security Risks: Reduced wheat production places pressure on the Public Distribution System (PDS) and raises the likelihood of food price inflation.

Stages of Wheat Growth Impacted by Heat Stress

• Germination to Emergence: High temperatures can delay or hinder the sprouting of seedlings.
• Vegetative Growth (Emergence to Anthesis): Heat stress hampers photosynthesis and spikelet formation.
• Reproductive Growth (Anthesis to Maturity): Accelerated flowering and ripening reduce grain weight and nutritional content.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

1. Heat-Resistant Varieties: Developing wheat varieties with shorter growth cycles can minimize heat exposure.
2. Early Sowing Methods: Planting wheat earlier in heat-prone regions can help avoid peak temperature stress.
3. Advanced Weather Monitoring: Strengthening meteorological advisories can assist farmers in making timely decisions on sowing and irrigation.
4. Precision Agriculture: Utilizing drip irrigation, soil sensors, and controlled fertilizer applications can enhance efficiency.
5. Policy Interventions: Expanding insurance coverage, introducing climate-specific financial aid, and providing credit facilities can shield farmers from climate-related losses.

UPSC Mains GS-3

1. Discuss the impact of climate change on wheat production in India. How can adaptation strategies help mitigate the adverse effects? (150 words)
2. How do rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns affect India’s food security? Suggest policy measures to ensure sustainable wheat production in the face of climate change. (250 words)