According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):
Status of monsoon as on 30th June 2021 and forecast upto 7th July
- Southwest monsoon 2021 so far covered most parts of the country except parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab. The northern Limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 26°N / Long. 70°E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar. Since, 19th June, there has not been any progress of monsoon. It was due to impact mid-latitude westerly winds and unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of low pressure system over North Bay of Bengal.
The MJO currently lies in Phase 1 (equatorial eastern Africa) with amplitude more than 1. It is likely to propagate eastwards into Phase 2 (Western Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea) with amplitude close to 1 by 2 July and further into Phase 3 (Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal) from 7th July. Hence, the phase of MJO is likely to gradually favour enhancement of convection and cross equatorial flow over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during Week 2 around 7th July 2021. Model forecasts show that easterly winds from Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels are not likely to be established over north-western plains of India before 7th July. Accordingly, further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab is not likely till 7th July.
Status of rainfall of Southwest monsoon 2021 till 30th June 2021: For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s Southwest Monsoon season’s Rainfall till 30th June, 2021 has been above normal by about 10% above Long Period Average (LPA) with actual rainfall during the same period is 18.29 cm against its normal of 16.69 cm.